Thanks for the insights here! I wonder if part of the reason the sales of compact and mini cars have dropped in recent years is because the standard compact SUV has become cheaper and more widely available. I agree with your theory on future demand in India being driven through savings and an increasing reliance on credit. I think cumulative money in Savings account is at a decade low right now. I personally think it's a good thing for the economy. We need more money to go around to keep growing.
There are regulatory tailwinds which have made compact SUVs more attractive from a price point, but that doesn't look to be the only/biggest reason. In an ideal scenario total car sales should have increased as well. Agree on the rotation of money point, but there are cautionary tales on loading the economy with consumer credit - eg: it might lead to inflated demand for manufactured goods that our manufacturing sector won't be able to deliver -> increased imports -> poor current account deficit
Would like to know your thoughts on the following:
- As the population of the developed countries grow old and they face shortage of skilled/semi-skilled labour, will the developing countries and especially India become the supplier for global talent?
- Also, ed-techs like Virohan are solving for skill and many more such start-ups will come up in the near future, do you think the trend of people going aborad for studies will start declining (studying aborad is expesnive as well) and people will go out for jobs?
A lot depends on border policies deployed by the developed nations but can India become the 'college' for the world? Because I don't see jobs rising in India on par with the growth in unemployment.
To a large extent this depends on how easy developed countries make it easy to emigrate, I think overall the sentiment is negative except for a very few places like Canada which is struggling with a labour problem, hence the relaxed controls for emigration. I expect most countries to become like the UK who want only skilled migrants.
On jobs vs education, I think folks want to get out as soon as they have a chance. The fact that the education system beyond top colleges in India is extremely poor is now clear to the median student, and he'd rather take his chances with a stronger currency, so no I don't think the trend of students wanting to go abroad will reduce.
Thanks for the insights here! I wonder if part of the reason the sales of compact and mini cars have dropped in recent years is because the standard compact SUV has become cheaper and more widely available. I agree with your theory on future demand in India being driven through savings and an increasing reliance on credit. I think cumulative money in Savings account is at a decade low right now. I personally think it's a good thing for the economy. We need more money to go around to keep growing.
There are regulatory tailwinds which have made compact SUVs more attractive from a price point, but that doesn't look to be the only/biggest reason. In an ideal scenario total car sales should have increased as well. Agree on the rotation of money point, but there are cautionary tales on loading the economy with consumer credit - eg: it might lead to inflated demand for manufactured goods that our manufacturing sector won't be able to deliver -> increased imports -> poor current account deficit
Thanks for the post
Another great article Mithun.
Would like to know your thoughts on the following:
- As the population of the developed countries grow old and they face shortage of skilled/semi-skilled labour, will the developing countries and especially India become the supplier for global talent?
- Also, ed-techs like Virohan are solving for skill and many more such start-ups will come up in the near future, do you think the trend of people going aborad for studies will start declining (studying aborad is expesnive as well) and people will go out for jobs?
A lot depends on border policies deployed by the developed nations but can India become the 'college' for the world? Because I don't see jobs rising in India on par with the growth in unemployment.
To a large extent this depends on how easy developed countries make it easy to emigrate, I think overall the sentiment is negative except for a very few places like Canada which is struggling with a labour problem, hence the relaxed controls for emigration. I expect most countries to become like the UK who want only skilled migrants.
On jobs vs education, I think folks want to get out as soon as they have a chance. The fact that the education system beyond top colleges in India is extremely poor is now clear to the median student, and he'd rather take his chances with a stronger currency, so no I don't think the trend of students wanting to go abroad will reduce.